Payback Period Formula + Calculator
Some investments take time to bring in potentially higher cash inflows, but they will be overlooked when using the payback method alone. The present value of the discounted future cash flows is compared to the initial capital outlay. If the result returns a positive number over the time period, then the investment is worth pursuing. The payback period is calculated by dividing the initial capital outlay of an investment by the annual cash flow. In its simplest form, the formula to calculate the payback period involves dividing the cost of the initial investment by the annual cash flow.
This capital budgeting and investment appraisal technique divides the present value of all estimated future cash flows by the projected initial outflows. The discounted cash flows are then compared to the initial cost – the point when the discounted cash flows equal the investment outflow is when the investment or project breaks even. It is expressed as a percentage and is a function of the initial investment capital and the final value, which includes dividends and interest. It measures the time it takes to regain the invested capital and reach the break-even point. If a venture has a 10-year period of payback, the measure does not consider the cash flows after the 10-year time frame.
In DCF analysis, the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the discount rate used to compute the present value of future cash flows. WACC is the calculation of a firm’s cost of capital, where each category of capital, such as equity or bonds, is proportionately weighted. For more detailed cash flow analysis, WACC is usually used in place of discount rate because it is a more accurate measurement of the financial opportunity cost of investments. Discounted payback period will usually be greater than regular payback period. Investments with higher cash flows toward the end of their lives will have greater discounting. The discounted payback period is the number of years it takes to pay back the initial investment after discounting cash flows.
She has worked in multiple cities covering breaking news, politics, education, and more. In this case, the payback period would be 4.0 years because 200,0000 divided by 50,000 is 4. As you can see in the example below, a DCF model is used to graph the payback period (middle graph below). We’ll now move to a modeling exercise, which you can access by filling out the form below. Julia Kagan is a financial/consumer journalist and former senior editor, personal finance, of Investopedia.
Is the Payback Period the Same Thing As the Break-Even Point?
Generally speaking, an investment can either have a short or a long payback period. The shorter a payback period is, the more likely it is that the cost will be repaid or returned quickly, and hence, the more desirable the investment becomes. The opposite stands for investments with longer payback periods – they’re less useful and less likely to be undertaken. The discounted payback period of 7.27 years is longer than the 5 years as calculated by the regular payback period because the time value of money is factored in.
Acting as a simple risk analysis, the payback period formula is easy to understand. It gives a quick overview of how quickly you can expect to recover your initial investment. The payback period also facilitates side-by-side analysis of two competing projects. If one has a longer payback period than the other, it might not be the better option. Payback period is used not only in financial industries, but also by businesses to calculate the rate of return on any new asset or technology upgrade. For example, a small business owner could calculate the payback period of installing solar panels to determine if they’re a cost-effective option.
The shorter the payback period, the more attractive the investment would be, because this means it would take less time to break even. It also assumes that the cash flow generated during the investment period is reinvested at the same rate, which is almost never the case. Hence, the best use case of IRR is when the investment being analyzed does not generate a lot of intermediate cash flows. This could prove problematic when dealing with multiple cash flows at different discount rates, for which the NPV would be more beneficial. The point after breaking even is when the total of discounted cash inflows will exceed the initial cost.
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Oftentimes, cash flow is conveyed as a net of the sum total of both positive and negative cash flows during a period, as is done for the calculator. The study of cash flow provides a general indication of solvency; generally, having adequate cash reserves is a positive sign of financial health for an individual or organization. The payback period is a fundamental capital budgeting tool in corporate finance, and perhaps the simplest method for evaluating the feasibility of undertaking a potential investment or project. Another drawback to the payback period is that it doesn’t take the time value of money into account, unlike the discounted payback period method. This concept states that money would be worth more today than the same amount in the future, due to depreciation and earning potential.
- Input the known values (year, cash flows, and discount rate) in their respective cells.
- It is a rate that is applied to future payments in order to compute the present value or subsequent value of said future payments.
- In addition, the potential returns and estimated payback time of alternative projects the company could pursue instead can also be an influential determinant in the decision (i.e. opportunity costs).
- However, not all projects and investments have the same time horizon, so the shortest possible payback period needs to be nested within the larger context of that time horizon.
Financial analysts will perform financial modeling and IRR analysis to compare the attractiveness of different projects. By forecasting free cash flows into the future, it is then possible to use the XIRR function in Excel to determine what discount rate sets the Net Present Value of the project to zero (the definition of IRR). The Payback Period measures the amount of time required to recoup the cost of an initial investment via the cash flows generated by the investment. The appropriate timeframe for an investment will vary depending on the type of project or investment and the expectations of those undertaking it. Investors may use payback in conjunction with return on investment (ROI) to determine whether or not to invest or enter a trade. Corporations and business managers also use the payback period to evaluate the relative favorability of potential projects in conjunction with tools like IRR or NPV.
How to calculate payback period with irregular cash flows
In this case, the payback method does not provide a strong indication as to which project to choose. That’s why business owners and managers need to use capital budgeting techniques to determine which projects will deliver the best returns, and yield the most profitable outcome. Due to its ease of use, payback period is a common method used to express return on investments, though it is important to note it does not account for the time value of money. The payback period is favored when a company is under liquidity constraints because it can show how long it should take to recover the money laid out for the project. If short-term cash flows are a concern, a short payback period may be more attractive than a longer-term investment that has a higher NPV.
Payback Period Vs. Other Capital Budgeting Metrics
For instance, a $2,000 investment at the start of the first year that returns $1,500 after the first year and $500 at the end of the second year has a two-year payback period. As a rule of thumb, the shorter the payback period, the better for an investment. Forecasted future cash flows are discounted backward in time to determine a present value estimate, which is evaluated to conclude whether an investment is worthwhile.
Getting repaid or recovering the initial cost of a project or investment should be achieved as quickly as it allows. However, not all projects and investments have the same time horizon, so the shortest possible payback period needs to be nested within the larger context of that time horizon. For example, the payback period on a home improvement project can be decades https://www.kelleysbookkeeping.com/purchasing-account-manager-jobs-employment/ while the payback period on a construction project may be five years or less. The second project will take less time to pay back, and the company’s earnings potential is greater. Based solely on the payback period method, the second project is a better investment if the company wants to prioritize recapturing its capital investment as quickly as possible.
Conceptually, the payback period is the amount of time between the date of the initial investment (i.e., project cost) and the date when the break-even point has been reached. It is an easy-to-use and understood investment appraisal technique, used in corporate finance, that provides the time period over which an investment income statement vs. pl will be returned. It has limited practicality in investment decision-making and shouldn’t be used in isolation. In addition, the IRR assumes that the generated cash flows are reinvested at the generated rate. This can cause inaccuracies if the received cash flows can’t be reinvested at, let’s say, at 6% when the IRR is 14%.
The other project would have a payback period of 4.25 years but would generate higher returns on investment than the first project. However, based solely on the payback period, the firm would select the first project over this alternative. The implications of this are that firms may choose investments with shorter payback periods at the expense of profitability. In addition, the potential returns and estimated payback time of alternative projects the company could pursue instead can also be an influential determinant in the decision (i.e. opportunity costs). The breakeven point is the price or value that an investment or project must rise to cover the initial costs or outlay. The term payback period refers to the amount of time it takes to recover the cost of an investment.
The basic payback period, as presented above, and its benefits and limitations give an overall idea of the concept. Evaluating the risk is especially important when the liquidity factor is a significant consideration. In conditions of uncertainty, the shorter payback means good cushioning and risk mitigation. The easiest method to audit and understand is to have all the data in one table and then break out the calculations line by line.